Exploring pathways to achieve net-zero emissions in high-value chemical production: balancing energy, emissions, and economic considerations

High-value chemicals (HVCs) are the main intermediate chemical building blocks for producing goods such as plastics, tires, and other products, contributing 18% of U.S. chemical industry emissions in 2020. However, there is limited robust guidance on decarbonizing this sector. This study explores cost-effective pathways for achieving a net-zero U.S. HVC industry by 2050, and key strategies include ethane cracking electrification with renewable energy, mechanical recycling, bioethanol dehydration, and carbon capture. We demonstrate that while current IRA policies are insufficient alone, a high circular economy pathway, reaching 50% recycling by 2030, offers the least system costs, mitigating 1.48 Gt CO2eq and reducing energy demand by 0.11 EJ relative to no-mitigation baselines. Furthermore, we conclude that integrated system optimization is more cost-effective than product-specific decarbonization, provided that residual upstream emissions are addressed via sector-integrated negative-emission technologies. This analysis also indicates that reducing emissions from upstream petrochemical feedstock is essential for easing the decarbonization burden on the HVC industry.