Patterns of Indirect Violence in Conventional War: Territorial Contestation and Civilian Casualties during the War in Ukraine

Indirect violence involving methods such as artillery shelling and aerial bombardment remains an underexplored aspect of conflict, largely due to the rarity of disaggregated data. This article estimates the impact of such violence on civilians by analyzing how territorial contestation influenced civilian casualties from Russian shelling near the frontlines in Ukraine. Drawing on granular conflict data, we find that civilian casualties from indirect violence were significantly higher during local Russian offensives, consistent with a doctrine of clearing the way through intensive bombardment. In contrast, this effect was not observed during Russian retreats, nor during local stalemates, which were marked by greater military casualties only. These relationships hold when proxies for civilian evacuation are included. We conclude that the study of indirect violence should consider how changing battlefield dynamics expose civilians to harm, especially the relationship between casualties and territorial contestation.