Distributional impacts of EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles across European markets

In July 2024, the European Union (EU) introduced additional tariffs on battery electric vehicles imported from China. How these trade measures affect the pace and distribution of vehicle electrification depends on automakers’ response strategies. Here we combine model-level cost data with a market adoption framework to quantify how tariff-induced cost shocks propagate through total cost of ownership and reshape electric vehicle adoption across 20 EU countries and 10 vehicle classes. We find that, depending on automaker responses, the EU-wide electric vehicle share in 2035 ranges from 56.4% (market withdrawal) to 68.9% (low-cost onshoring), compared with 64.4% under a business-as-usual projection. Adoption losses are concentrated in price-sensitive classes and lower-income countries that rely heavily on affordable China-produced battery electric vehicles, while onshoring production can partially offset tariff impacts and accelerate electrification. Our findings highlight the distributional consequences of uniform trade interventions and underscore the importance of aligning trade and industrial policy to support a resilient and inclusive transition.