Systems thinking for climate change and modern slavery mitigation in supply chains: insights from panarchy theory

Modern slavery (MS) remains a pervasive and underexplored challenge in global supply chains (SCs), deeply intertwined with climate change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and resource insecurity. Addressing this dual crisis is vital not only for achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8 (decent work) and SDG 13 (climate action), but also for advancing low-carbon SC operations and progress towards net-zero emissions commitments. This study employs panarchy theory to examine the multi-level socio-ecological dynamics of MS, focusing on its bidirectional relationship with climate change and the Water–Food–Energy (WFE) nexus. Using system dynamics modelling, we analyse how interventions across SC, political-economic, and planetary levels can disrupt MS while mitigating systemic vulnerabilities caused by climate change and reducing emissions intensity and addressing carbon lock-in within a high-emissions upstream oil SC. Drawing on a case study of the Azadegan oil field, near the Hawizeh Marsh on the Iran-Iraq border, the research demonstrates the global relevance of resource exploitation and socio-ecological vulnerability. Our findings highlight WFE security as a critical lever for reducing labour exploitation by mitigating population vulnerability. However, isolated SC-level policies or MS-focused initiatives prove insufficient. Instead, integrated approaches that combine international climate action, WFE resource management, and systemic governance reforms are essential. By extending panarchy theory to address negative SC phenomena and incorporating hybrid policy designs, this research shows how decarbonisation policies (e.g. flaring elimination, carbon taxation and renewable energy investment) can be combined with WFE and governance reforms to simultaneously reduce forced labour risk and GHG emissions in oil SCs. The study thus provides actionable insights for integrating social justice, low-carbon operations and climate change mitigation into SC management in support of net-zero goals as well as decent work targets in SCs.