“It’s fair once you’re in it” - Comparing public and government perceptions on Zero Emission Vehicle policy

Public support is important for policy success, and people tend to be more supportive of policies they perceive to be fair. Where public perceptions were not adequately considered, or where the views of the public and government diverge, policy outcomes may be different than expected. However, there is only very limited research on public perceptions of fairness, particularly in transport. Drawing from the tenets of a Just Transition, this study examines public acceptability and perceptions on a major UK decarbonisation policy: The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate which, at the time of data collection, required all new cars and vans sold in the UK to be zero emission from 2035 onwards. Public perceptions were studied in ten workshops with members of the public, and captured in causal loop diagrams. These findings are compared with the UK government’s policy texts and consultation reports, and with an interview with government officials. The Government’s consultations around the ZEV Mandate focussed on the industry impacts and the mechanisms for managing the scheme. The impacts of the policy on the public were marginalised. Citizens raised concerns over procedural and recognition justice. Whilst the benefits of transitioning were noticed, the system was clearly seen to privilege those who already had good jobs, access to finance and own their own homes - those who are already seen to do well. The research reveals that the inevitable tensions on who wins and loses at different points in a technology transition are not considered, risking to undermine the public acceptability of the measures.