Tight regulation of Earth’s long-term temperature over Phanerozoic time

Knowing the past temperature of the Earth is crucial for understanding the mechanisms driving climate change and biosphere evolution, but there is significant debate about the range of past temperature variation. Previous interpretations, largely based on oxygen isotope records, suggest that global temperature has generally declined over the past 539 million years, but substantial uncertainties persist. In this study, we introduce an independent estimate for long-term Phanerozoic temperature trends based on a large database of chemical weathering indices from siliciclastic sedimentary rocks, globally upscaled using a state-of-the-art general circulation paleoclimate model. Our results imply that Phanerozoic global temperatures remained within 10-30 °C, and that Paleozoic oceans had comparable temperatures to Mesozoic and Cenozoic oceans, in contrast to previous work suggesting that they were anomalously hot. This finding supports the idea that negative feedback processes, such as silicate weathering, have maintained long-term global average temperatures within a relatively tight range, contributing to the continued long-term evolution of the biosphere.