Assessing climate-smartness of agronomic practices in oil palm production under changing climate conditions

Assessing the climate-smartness of oil palm (OP) agronomic practices is critical for ensuring sustainable, resilient, and low-emission production that meets growing demand and complies with international climate-friendly regulations. This study aims to assess the climate-smartness, defined as improved productivity, enhanced resilience and reduced GHG emissions, of OP agronomic practices under a changing climate. Climate-smartness of irrigation and empty fruit bunch (EFB) application with standard and reduced N fertiliser was assessed using yield change, carbon balance change and two climate-smart indices. The Agricultural Production SIMulator (APSIM) model was used to simulate yield, carbon balance components and water use over a 25-year plantation cycle. Uncertainty analysis included ten different sites, five GCMs (IPSL, GFDL, MPI, MRI, UKESM1), two emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) and three periods (baseline: 1998–2022; mid-century: 2041–2065; end-century: 2071–2095). Irrigation emerges as the most climate-smart practice for OP production under climate change, showing strong synergy among mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable production. While gains in yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) are modest (median yield increase: 4.48 %; IQR: −12.10–10.79), emissions remain low, maintaining OP systems as carbon sinks (lowest carbon balance change, median: 0.21 tCeq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; IQR: 0.08–0.43). Irrigation also shows highest synergy in water productivity and GHG intensity (median index score: 0.36; IQR: 0.25–0.48). All EFB application scenarios improve productivity and adaptation through higher yields and SOC, though gains are offset by higher emissions from EFB decomposition in warmer conditions. Elevated temperature, higher N fertiliser and reduced plant density lower the climate-smartness of OP productions. This study improves understanding of balanced climate-smart practices. Choosing the climate-smart practices and maintaining optimised N fertiliser and plant density enhance synergy in sustainable production, mitigation and adaptation of OP under climate change.