Using Statistical Modelling and Geographic Data to Challenge Declinist Headlines - a Case Study of Fish and Chip Shops in Great Britain

The traditional fish and chip shop is an important part of the food environment in many UK neighbourhoods. However, rising costs, changing tastes and competition have resulted in fish and chip shop closures, with some alarmist predictions that up to half of all shops could close in a single year. Using Points of Interest data and multilevel modelling, we look beyond the headlines and model trends in fish and chip shop provision by neighbourhood type between 2022 and 2025. We identify an overall decline in the number of shops yet find no evidence to support the predictions of widespread closures. However, closures have been unevenly spread across neighbourhood types, with the greatest decline in deprived and ethnically diverse urban areas, and less impact on some more affluent neighbourhoods with older populations. Although some adaption may be needed to maintain viable amidst rising costs, our findings suggest that the traditional fish and chip shop remains an important part of the food environment in many neighbourhoods. In conclusion, we highlight the importance of robust data driven insight when considering the changing provision of services and comment on how these approaches could be applied in other contexts.