Cross-sectional illusions: what we have learned about the attitude-behaviour relationship and its policy implications

In this seminar, we describe/challenge long-standing assumptions in transport research about the direction/strength of the relationship between attitudes and behaviour. Economic and social science theories suggest a one-way effect from attitudes to behaviour. Drawing on a synthesis of empirical studies focused on car use and ownership, we show that this view is simplistic. Most research tests this relationship through cross-sectional data and reports medium to large effects from attitude to behaviour (or intention). However, emerging (longitudinal) panel models reveal that (1) the attitude-behaviour relationship is bidirectional, (2) the strength of the effects is weaker than what is suggested by cross-sectional studies, (3) attitudes are sometimes more a function of behaviours, not vice versa, and (4) behaviours are more a function of past behaviours than of past attitudes. From a policy perspective, expecting to change (travel) behaviour solely by changing attitudes, often referred to as soft measures, may be overly optimistic. We also briefly discuss the implications for choice modelling frameworks.