Estimating the shares of the value of branded pharmaceuticals accruing to manufacturers and to patients in the Thai healthcare system

Objectives: This article aims to inform which pricing policies for new pharmaceuticals will benefit population health most, and which will not, by drawing out the implications of current pricing policy in Thailand for the value that new, branded pharmaceuticals bring to the population. Methods: We quantify the lifecycle value in terms of net population health gains of 9 new, branded pharmaceutical and indication combinations by evaluating lifetime health gains and reimbursement costs, considering the availability of generics or biosimilars. We then analyze how the value is shared between the population and manufacturers. Results: Two-thirds of the pharmaceutical and indication combinations generated net population health gains over their lifecycle, with more than 90% of the total potential net health effects benefiting patients within the Thai healthcare system. However, manufacturers received a low proportion of value. Key factors driving these outcomes included delayed adoption of new pharmaceuticals and entry of generics or biosimilars. Conversely, 2 pharmaceuticals that were approved despite being deemed cost-ineffective resulted in net losses to population health. Conclusions: Quantification of the lifecycle value of new pharmaceuticals can better inform policies that enhance population health. In Thailand, policies that could improve overall population health include earlier adoption of new pharmaceuticals alongside careful price regulation and expedited generic entry. These approaches could also provide mechanisms to signal research and development priorities effectively.