A detailed analysis of long-term modelling method of power-to-gas hydrogen generation using curtailed wind energy

Wind curtailment in Great Britain (GB) is increasing, leading to underutilisation of low-carbon energy and higher system costs. This paper develops a data-driven techno-economic framework for a hydrogen generation and storage system that converts curtailed wind energy into hydrogen. By modelling curtailment time series and electricity prices, and considering a proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser-based power-to-gas system, The framework explicitly represents the operation and interaction of the PEM electrolyser, hydrogen compression, and high-pressure storage under time-varying curtailment and electricity price conditions using reconstructed GB curtailment time series. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH), net present value (NPV), and delivered hydrogen volumes are evaluated. A new sizing metric, curtailment utilisation, is introduced to link curtailment availability with electrolyser and storage productivity. Using a GB curtailment dataset, two key relationships are identified. First, increasing access to low-cost curtailed energy reduces the LCOH until electrolyser utilisation saturates, beyond which additional energy purchases provide diminishing benefits. Second, hydrogen storage exhibits an economic optimum: Undersized tanks increase costs due to ramping and venting losses, whereas oversized tanks raise capital investment requirements and increase the LCOH. For the best-performing configuration, corresponding to 70.2 MWh of curtailed energy, a 2.3 MW electrolyser, and a 94 m3 high-pressure tank, the system achieves an LCOH of £3.51/kg H2 (excluding downstream delivery) and an NPV of £2.17 M and meets 98.01% of the hydrogen demand. These results indicate that optimal system design requires not only appropriate component sizing but also explicit consideration of curtailment profiles and pricing structures. The proposed framework provides decision-grade guidance for developers and policymakers evaluating hydrogen production from wind curtailment. Future work will extend the model to hybridise with other energy storage system technologies, enable revenue stacking across multiple markets, address real-gas storage modelling, examine the sensitivity of stack degradation, and incorporate transport and delivery costs. These findings show that viable hydrogen production from curtailed wind depends on both low-cost electricity and coordinated electrolyser storage sizing under realistic curtailment conditions. The framework provides practical guidance for developers and policymakers.