Defining National Fossil Fuel Phase Out Roadmaps: A Colombian Case Study

In support of the first conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, held in Colombia in April 2026, this report presents a roadmap for the near-complete phase-out of fossil fuels from Colombia’s economy by 2050, encompassing consumption, production and exports.

The pathway delivers a 90% reduction in both primary fossil fuel demand relative to 2026 and associated emissions relative to 2015 levels, while also presenting a compelling economic case. An average annual investment of USD 10.6 billion above a business-as-usual scenario—primarily from private capital, supported by coordinated public action—would generate net economy-wide savings from the 2040s, exceeding USD 23 billion annually by 2050. These gains are driven by the rapid deployment of cost-effective renewable energy technologies, particularly solar and wind, alongside widespread electrification. Investments in energy efficiency and demand-side management are key to ensuring that electricity demand is met while generating savings for businesses and households.

A well-managed transition is especially critical for fossil fuel-exporting countries like Colombia, where production and revenues are projected to decline rapidly in a structurally contracting global market. Export revenues are expected to halve within the next decade, requiring replacement through sectors such as green hydrogen, biofuels and critical mineral extraction. These areas emerge as key business opportunities for investment where Colombia holds significant competitive advantage.

Such a transition would enhance economic resilience, reduce exposure to external shocks, and support Colombia’s climate commitments, positioning it as a global climate leader. Achieving this at pace will require robust governance and strengthened international cooperation.

Roadmaps need to be decades-long implementation plans. National evidence-based governance structures are needed to deliver a workable cost-effective transition that supports people and businesses. Frameworks based on national climate councils and their international network can help bring the best learnings from around the world to support implementation at the heart of government.