Overshoot: An analysis of progress, risks and opportunities for decarbonising surface transport

This report is published nearly five years on from the Department for Transport’s Decarbonisation Plan. It provides an assessment of carbon reduction progress and plans which the Department promised to do, but has not undertaken. The headline is simple. The current plans will significantly overshoot the anticipated progress set out by the Climate Change Committee. Every time a carbon reduction pathway is published, the shape looks the same but the ambition slips back. The implications of this report should be profound. They should impact the strategic case for every plan, scheme and, therefore, the allocation of funds across national networks and local government. Saying anything critical of decarbonisation policy at a time where some political parties are targeting ‘net zero nonsense’ could be fuel to the flames. However, whilst we have run out of road space for minor adjustments in policy to make a difference to meeting our carbon budgets, every action that is taken matters to the level of overshoot. It is also important to stress that decarbonisation is not somehow separate from improving the affordability, health and resilience of our communities and the productivity of the economy. There remain opportunities for a more radical and exciting rethink of how we access and use vehicles and move around. This report calls for a national Task Force to be established to explore this potential.