Societal Impact Statement Climate change is transforming agriculture through both gradual shifts and increasingly unpredictable extremes, challenging farmers' ability to protect crops and livelihoods. This study brings together farmer experiences and plant adaptation strategies to explore how people and plants respond to similar climate pressures. By showing that farmers' practices mirror plant plasticity and bet hedging, our findings highlight opportunities to design climate-resilient agriculture that aligns biological traits with real-world decision-making. This work can inform plant breeders, extension services and policymakers seeking to support farmers through clearer communication, better risk-management tools and more adaptable crop varieties, ultimately strengthening resilience in food systems. Summary Climate change is reshaping agriculture through both gradual shifts and increasingly unpredictable extremes. Plants cope using developmental plasticity and bet hedging, but it is unclear how these biological strategies align with the ways farmers perceive and respond to climate risks. This study investigates: (1) whether farmers understand climate change as incremental trends or recurrent shocks, (2) how their adaptations parallel plant plasticity and bet hedging and (3) under which climate scenarios these adaptations best support yield stability. We combined qualitative research and modelling by conducting 50 semi-structured interviews with farmers, agricultural associations and public administrators across three climatically distinct Italian regions and by developing an agent-based stochastic simulation that represents farmer-like plasticity (delayed sowing) and bet hedging (staggered sowing) under drought and flood scenarios. Farmers described climate change as both gradual transformation and intensifying volatility. Their adaptive responses—adjusting calendars, switching crops and diversifying production—closely aligned with plant strategies, though articulated in practical rather than scientific terms. Simulation results showed that plasticity enhanced yields under systematic shifts in conditions, whereas bet-hedging reduced losses in highly variable climates characterised by frequent transitions between extremes. Together, the qualitative and modelling findings demonstrate that plant and farmer adaptation logics converge in complementary ways. Plasticity supports performance under gradual change, whereas bet hedging buffers unpredictability. These insights highlight the potential for co-designed tools that link plant traits, farmer decision-making and ecological risk, strengthening climate-resilient agricultural planning and improving communication between farmers, breeders and plant scientists.
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)