Chmura, T., Nguyen, K. and Biermann, F. (2026) Evolutionarily optimal risk aversion. Risk Analysis, 46 (5). e70250. ISSN: 0272-4332
Abstract
In an experimental choice situation, we identify risk-acceptability thresholds and show how such thresholds are updated in response to benchmark information, a recurrent feature of health, safety, and environmental (HS&E) risk governance. We present a theoretical framework linking the observed behavior to an underlying evolutionary parameter, which in this case is (an abstract notion of) risk aversion. The theoretical model allows to predict how the experimental subjects adjust their risk aversion when informed about the risky choices of others. Applications of the framework arise naturally in HS&E settings, where individuals and organizations revise risk thresholds by observing peers, experienced coworkers, or acknowledged experts. By distinguishing confidence-driven inertia from trust-driven overreaction, the paper provides actionable guidance for HS&E risk communication and adaptive risk management.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Authors/Creators: |
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| Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2026 The Author(s). Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Keywords: | Risky Choice; Risk Attitudes; Evolution of Preferences; HS&E |
| Dates: |
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| Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
| Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > School of Economics (Sheffield) |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Apr 2026 13:50 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Apr 2026 15:17 |
| Status: | Published |
| Publisher: | Wiley |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Identification Number: | 10.1111/risa.70250 |
| Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:239725 |
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