Anthropogenic warming and ocean variability exacerbated spring 2024 compound floods in Central Asia

In spring 2024, northwestern Central Asia experienced catastrophic floods that displaced more than 100,000 people and caused severe socioeconomic disruption. This multi-peak compound disaster, marked by consecutive extreme precipitation and heatwaves, was the most devastating event since 1980. The March 3-day maximum precipitation (Rx3day) in 2024 exceeded its climatological mean by approximately threefold, while the April 7-day maximum temperature (Tx7day) exceeded the climatological average by 5.77 K. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show that anthropogenic warming increased the likelihood of 2024-like compound extremes, with greenhouse gases alone amplifying the risk by ∼8-fold. Under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP2–4.5), this risk is projected to increase to more than 22-fold by the end of the twenty-first century. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies also play a critical role in shaping the consecutive rainfall and heat extreme events during 2024. An emerging Atlantic SST tripole, characterized by mid-latitude cooling, together with basin-wide Indian Ocean warming, enhances Rx3day through the increased westerly moisture transport, whereas a decaying La Niña tendency persisting from preceding winter to April favors persistent high-pressure anomalies and enhanced Tx7day. Linear decomposition indicates that internal variability reconstructed via SST anomalies explains approximately 31% and 68% of the observed anomalies in Rx3day and Tx7day, respectively, while external forcing acts primarily to amplify these extremes. Our results further highlight the importance of local thermodynamic feedback under ongoing global warming, which should be explicitly accounted for in projections of future regional compound floods.