An advanced Petri-Net Modelling Approach for Risk Asset Management of Reinforced Concrete Ageing Transportation Infrastructure Under Climate Change Effects

This paper presents an advanced Petri Net (PN) modelling framework for the risk-based management of ageing reinforced concrete (RC) transportation infrastructure under climate change. The proposed framework introduces a modular PN architecture that decomposes infrastructure systems into interconnected submodules encompassing deterioration mechanisms, inspection policies, and maintenance strategies. These submodules are integrated into component, system and network-level PN modules, enabling holistic simulation and optimisation of asset-level decisions. A probabilistic degradation process is embedded within each submodule, incorporating climate-dependent parameters and allowing seamless integration of regional/national climate projections. Additionally, a multivariate statistical formulation is employed to capture interdependencies between component deterioration rates, enabling system-level reliability assessment.

To demonstrate the framework’s application, the model is implemented for a case-study RC bridge using the UKCP18 climate projection dataset, which includes 28 distinct climate scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted for three environmental trajectories: baseline ageing, expected and pessimistic climate change. Results indicate that climate change accelerates corrosion-induced deterioration, highlighting the need for adaptive inspection and maintenance strategies.

The proposed PN framework provides a generalised, data-driven tool for long-term infrastructure durability and life-cycle risk management under uncertainty.