Electric vehicle ownership dynamics at the household level: a stated adaptation experiment on the effects of pricing and incentive policies

A reduction in diesel and petrol vehicles and a shift to electric vehicles (EVs) are part of many governments’ plans towards transport decarbonisation. To encourage such a shift, governments need to implement effective policies. In a stated adaptation experiment, 444 respondents were presented with four scenarios with hypothetical pricing strategies concerning EV purchase subsidies and prices for fuel, electricity, and public transport. The scenarios involved the presentation of values specifically calculated depending on the cost and composition of actual mobility tools in the household, and respondents were asked to adapt their household fleet in response. For example, they could remove current vehicles, add new ones or acquire/relinquish public transport (PT) passes. The effect of cost-related interventions on their decisions was modelled in an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model. Our results suggest that the decision to remove a conventional vehicle and/or replace it with an electric vehicle can be effectively promoted by increasing fuel prices, lowering electricity prices and lowering PT fares. Providing subsidies for the purchase of EVs was found to be ineffective. An analysis of attitudes revealed that people with greater intention to buy an EV are less affected by any pricing strategies. Incentives for removing a conventional vehicle are only effective for people who are more concerned about the environment.