The correlation between conspiracy mentality and vaccine intentions is moderated by social events: evidence from longitudinal data during COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

Social events may provide important cues that influence the sense of reality, including the perception that conspiracy theories are plausible. Using longitudinal panel data collected in the UK from March 2020 to December 2021, this study aims to identify whether social events influenced the strength of the association between conspiracy mentality and vaccine intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Consistent with previous research, the conspiracy mentality was a significant predictor of vaccine intentions across three-time points, but also that conspiracy mentality measured in March 2020 predicted that participants were more hesitant to the vaccines in December 2020. The primary finding was that different social events moderated the strength of the correlation between conspiracy mentality and vaccine intentions within similar participants. Conspiracy mentality became more vital to evaluate COVID-19 vaccines in December 2020, when the vaccination program was about to commence.