Payne, J.A., Watson, A.R., Maghsoudi, Y. et al. (5 more authors) (2025) Widespread Extent of Irrecoverable Aquifer Depletion Revealed by Country‐Wide Analysis of Land Surface Subsidence Hazard in Iran. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130 (9). e2024JB030367. ISSN: 2169-9313
Abstract
Ongoing depletion of Iran's groundwater, driven by human extraction, has contributed to 106incidences of basin‐scale, land‐surface subsidence covering 31,400 km² (>10 mm/yr, 1.9%) of the country. Weuse Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar time series to map and analyze, for the first time,surface velocities within these subsiding regions in vertical and east‐west directions. We find maximum subsidence rates in the vertical direction reach ∼340 mm/yr in Rafsanjan, with 77% of subsidence faster than10 mm/yr correlating with agriculture. We assess the risk posed by differential subsidence to residential populations, estimating that ∼650,200 people in Iran are exposed to medium or higher subsidence induced risk caused by steep differential subsidence gradients. We further demonstrate the use of these vertical and east‐west velocity gradients in aiding identification of structural and geological controls on subsidence patterns, some of which are not evident on existing fault maps. We use Independent Component Analysis nationwide to separate subsidence deformation sources and demonstrate that most of Iran's rapid subsidence, and thus aquifer compaction, is irreversible, with inelastic deformation contributing at minimum 60% of the observed deformation magnitude. This proportion of deformation which is irreversible varies within and between subsidence regions. During a recent, severe regional drought (2020–2023), we demonstrate the control of precipitation on the elastic, recoverable subsidence deformation magnitude, with the elastic to inelastic deformation ratio falling from 41% to 44% pre‐drought to 31%–36%
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2025. The Author(s).This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | InSAR, subsidence, Iran, hazard, groundwater, ICA |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Date Deposited: | 01 Oct 2025 14:47 |
Last Modified: | 01 Oct 2025 14:47 |
Published Version: | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.102... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2024jb030367 |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:232403 |