Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Türkiye:A Multi-Scenario Assessment of Demand, Metering, and Carbon Tax Policies

The accelerating demand for low-carbon energy solutions highlights the critical role of hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) in achieving decarbonization, energy security, and economic resilience. This study offers a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental evaluation of HRES integrating photovoltaic, wind, and battery storage technologies across Türkiye’s diverse climatic regions and sectoral demand profiles (residential, commercial, industrial). Utilizing 48 scenario-based simulations via HOMER Pro, the analysis incorporates real-world policy instruments including carbon taxation, net metering (NM), and net billing (NB). A novel sensitivity analysis reveals that under NB, battery integration becomes economically viable at carbon prices above 40–50 $/tCO2, while NM lowers this threshold to around 20 $/tCO2. Additionally, a 40 $/tCO2 carbon tax increases the renewable energy fraction by 32% and reduces the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by 11.75%. Commercial users in wind-rich regions benefit most under NM, achieving up to 22% lower net present cost (NPC). While NM maximizes renewable deployment and short-term returns, NB ensures greater economic discipline and supports battery investments under high tariff and carbon scenarios. Expanded performance indicators, including self-supply rate, self-consumption rate, and energy exchange rate, provide operational insights beyond conventional metrics. The findings offer region-specific and policy-aware recommendations, suggesting that hybrid models combining NM and NB, supported by moderate carbon pricing and targeted incentives, can optimize system performance while ensuring affordability and equity in Türkiye’s energy transition. This framework offers strategic guidance for regulators, investors, and planners in emerging economies.