Demand Forecasting for New Local Rail Services: A Case Study of a New Service Between Leicester and Burton-On- Trent

Preston, J. and Wardman, M. (1988) "Demand Forecasting for New Local Rail Services: A Case Study of a New Service between Leicester and Burton-on-Trent". Workina Paver 260, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. This paper assesses the potential for a new rail service between Leicester and Burton-on-rent. In order to do this, three sets of demand forecasts were produced. These were based on Revealed Preference (RP) models that had been developed in West Yorkshire, a Stated Intentions (SI) survey of the Leicester-Burton corridor and Stated Preference (SP) models developed for the Ashby/ Coalville -and Outer Leicester areas. It was found that these three approaches gave a wide range of forecasts but it was felt that the SI survey, adjusted for the findings from the SP models, were likely to give the most reliable estimates of usage. As a result, it was concluded that, given patronage growth over time, total usage of the line would amount to between 3,000 and 4,000 trips on an average day. The demand forecasts were then used as input to an evaluation framework which took into account capital costs, operating costs, revenue and time savings. Even if actual usage reached the upper level of our forecasts it was shown that, although operating costs would be covered, only some of the capital costs would be paid back. Consideration of user time savings strengthens the case for the scheme but even so a return on capital would still not be achieved. Therefore, it was concluded that the case for a rail service between Leicester and Burton is, at best, marginal, although a number of ways to continue the feasibility study are suggested.