Chen, Z., Su, B., Zhao, M. et al. (4 more authors) (2024) Projected changes of runoff in the Upper Yellow River Basin under shared socioeconomic pathways. Frontiers of Earth Science, 18. pp. 849-863. ISSN: 2095-0195
Abstract
Climate change has significantly impacted the water resources and conservation area of the Yellow River basin. The Upper Yellow River basin (UYR), referring to the area above Lanzhou station on the Yellow River is the focus of this study, the runoff changes in the UYR would greatly impact the water resources in China. Most existing studies rely on a single hydrological model (HM) to evaluate runoff changes instead of multiple models and criteria. In terms of the UYR, outputs of the previous Coupled Model International Comparison Project (CMIP) are used as drivers of HMs. In this study, the weighted results of three HMs were evaluated using multiple criteria to investigate the projected changes in discharge in the UYR using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6. The research’s key findings include the following. 1) Annual discharge in the UYR is expected to increase by 15.2%–64.4% at the end of the 21st century under the 7 SSPs. In the long-term (2081–2100), the summer and autumn discharge will increase by 18.9%–56.6% and 11.8%–70%, respectively. 2) The risk of flooding in the UYR is likely to increase in the three future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) under all 7 SSPs. Furthermore, the drought risk will decrease under most scenarios in all three future periods. The verified HMs and the latest SSPs are applied in this study to provide basin-scale climate impact projections for the UYR to support water resource management.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Higher Education Press 2024. This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use (https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/policies/accepted-manuscript-terms), but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1032-z. |
Keywords: | Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), climate change, discharge, the Upper Yellow River basin |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 28 Jul 2025 10:18 |
Last Modified: | 21 Aug 2025 11:16 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Nature |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11707-022-1032-z |
Related URLs: | |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:229292 |
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Filename: manuscript-accepted version.pdf
