Model-based appraisal of the potential effects of minimum pricing for tobacco in Scotland

Background: Minimum tobacco pricing would set a legal price floor. This study aimed to estimate how five minimum price thresholds could impact smoking behaviour, health and economic outcomes alongside tobacco tax increases in Scotland.

Methods: The Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model was used to estimate effects on tobacco consumption up to the Scottish Government’s ‘tobacco-free’ target of 2034. The model is an individual-based microsimulation that uses data from the Scottish Health Survey, Living Costs and Food Survey, hospital and death records. The £0.40 and £0.50 per cigarette stick minimum prices would impact only hand-rolling tobacco (assuming 0.5 g hand-rolling tobacco per cigarette), and the £0.60, £0.70 and £0.80 per stick minimums would affect hand-rolling and factory-made cigarettes.

Results: A £0.60 minimum implemented in 2024 was estimated to lead to 16 327 fewer people who smoke and increase weekly tobacco spending by £7.21 for those who continue smoking. It would prevent an estimated 285 deaths, adding 6792 life years, and reducing hospital admissions by 1467 by 2034. These health gains would be higher in more deprived geographic areas, saving the Scottish National Health Service £1.2 million over 5 years and £2.7 million by 2034. Over 5 years, a £0.60 minimum price would reduce UK Government tax revenue by £253 million, while increasing tobacco industry revenue by £996 million.

Conclusions: A minimum price implemented alongside tobacco duty rises could reduce smoking rates and improve public health, especially for those living in deprived areas where smoking rates and related harms are highest.