Projections of housing tenure and poverty in older age in Great Britain, 2022-2040

Independent Age commissioned a team from the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (CaCHE) to generate projections of the proportion of older people (age 65 years+) in England, Scotland and Wales (Great Britain) living in different housing tenures in 2040 and their likelihood of being in (relative) poverty.

The study draws on data from Understanding Society (2009 to present), a longitudinal household panel study that collects annual survey data on the experiences of UK residents on a wide range of social and economic topics. The study uses Waves 2 to 12 of the survey data, covering a data collection period of January 2010 to May 2022.

Analysis involved regression modelling to identify key predictors of tenure and experiences of poverty in older age among the current 65+ population in Great Britain, which were then used as the basis for predictions about the 65+ population in 2040. Poverty was measured using the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) relative income after housing costs definition. Under this definition, people are considered to be in relative poverty if their household income is below 60% of the median post-housing-costs household income.