Bayesian deep multi-instance learning for student performance prediction based on campus big data

Problem: Predicting student performance using campus big data and deep learning methods has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional psychological assessments, which are often delayed and subjective. However, existing deep learning approaches face significant challenges, including the sparsity of campus big data and susceptibility to overfitting.

Objective: To address these issues, this study aims to develop a robust and effective framework for predicting student performance by overcoming data sparsity and overfitting problems.

Method: We propose a novel Bayesian Deep Multi-Instance Learning (Bay-DeepMIL) framework. The method integrates multi-instance learning (MIL) to handle data sparsity and incorporates a Bayesian framework to treat network parameters as probabilistic distributions, enhancing robustness and mitigating overfitting. Additionally, a Bayesian multi-head attention mechanism is introduced to dynamically assign importance to different instances, improving the extraction of key information from multi-instance data.

Results: Extensive experiments demonstrate that Bay-DeepMIL outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy. The framework also provides uncertainty estimates for each prediction, offering valuable confidence measures and decision support for educational stakeholders.

Conclusion: The proposed Bay-DeepMIL framework not only advances the technical capabilities of predictive models but also provides practical tools for enhancing educational decision-making. This study underscores the effectiveness of integrating Bayesian inference with multi-instance learning to address core challenges such as data sparsity and model overfitting in student performance prediction.