Bugryniec, P. orcid.org/0000-0003-3494-5646 and Brown, S. (Submitted: 2025) Lithium-Ion battery thermal runaway propagation prevention – predicting critical parameters considering uncertainty. [Preprint - SSRN] (Submitted)
Abstract
LIBs suffer from the potential to undergo thermal runaway (TR) which can lead to fire and explosions. Computational modelling of TR is essential to understanding its hazards, and to accurately quantify risks there is a need to account for the uncertainty in TR behaviour. To adequately predict the safe limits of battery operation we incorporate the stochasticity of thermo-physical and kinetic reaction parameters in module thermal runaway propagation (TRP) analysis. This work presents the uncertainty in the predicted cell temperatures, times to cell TR and times to TRP. The critical heat dissipation coefficient to prevent TRP considering cell uncertainty was found to be 3 and 4.5 times larger for LFP and NMC stacks, respectively, compared to the scenario where cell uncertainty was not considered. For the LFP stack, the less severe TR events mean, in theory, that TRP can be prevented by heat pipe or submersion cooling thermal management systems. Without considering cell stochasticity there is a significant overestimate of TRP time and an underestimate of critical heat dissipation coefficient to prevent TRP. Hence, the predicted safe time for evacuation and appropriate thermal management methods are inaccurate. This work highlights the need to incorporate uncertainty in predictions of risk.
Metadata
Item Type: | Preprint |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2025 The Author(s). |
Keywords: | Battery safety; Battery Abuse; stochastic modelling; Statistical analysis; Risk assessment |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > School of Chemical, Materials and Biological Engineering |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number THE FARADAY INSTITUTION UNSPECIFIED |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 23 May 2025 13:19 |
Last Modified: | 23 May 2025 13:19 |
Status: | Submitted |
Identification Number: | 10.2139/ssrn.5117247 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:227050 |