Can Patient Characteristics and Pre-Treatment MRI Features Predict Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiotherapy (SABR) Treatment in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC): Preliminary Assessment

Background: The study purpose was to develop a machine learning (ML)-based predictive model for event-free survival (EFS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR). Methods: Patients receiving SABR for HCC at a single institution, between 2017 and 2020, were included in the study. They were split into training and test (85%:15%) cohorts. Events of interest were HCC recurrence or death. Three ML models were trained, the features were selected, and the hyperparameters were tuned. The performance was measured using Harrell’s C index with the best-performing model being tested on the unseen cohort. Results: Overall, 41 patients were included (training = 34, test = 7) and 64 lesions were analysed (training = 50, test = 14), resulting in 30 events (60% rate) in the training set (death = 6, recurrence = 24) and 8 events (57% rate) in the test set (death = 5, recurrence = 3). A Cox regression model, using age at treatment, albumin, and intra-lesional fat identified through MRI as variables, had the best performance with a mean training score of 0.78 (standard deviation (SD) 0.02), a mean validation of 0.78 (SD 0.18), and a test score of 0.94. Conclusions: Predicting the outcomes in patients with HCC, following SABR, using a novel model is feasible and warrants further evaluation.