The Leverage of Terrorists on Democratic Regimes: Evidence from Natural Experiments in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper quantifies the impact of terrorism on electoral support for incumbent parties in sub-Saharan Africa, using survey data collected during fieldwork that coincided with terrorist attacks. By comparing respondents surveyed immediately before a local attack with those in the same area surveyed shortly after, we observe a 5-6 percentage point decrease in incumbent support following attacks. This decline is more pronounced when attacks are proximate, target civilians, or incur higher casualties. The impact is strongest in states with weaker institutions, areas with extensive media coverage, and among politically engaged and educated citizens, though effective government response can mitigate this adverse effect. Further investigation reveals that the reduction in support stems primarily from a significant erosion of trust in the incumbent party, rather than shifts in counter-terrorism policy preferences. These findings underscore terrorism's considerable influence on democratic stability in affected regions.