Dunant, A., Robinson, T.R., Densmore, A.L. orcid.org/0000-0003-0629-6554 et al. (9 more authors) (2025) Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25 (1). pp. 267-285. ISSN 1561-8633
Abstract
This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multiple simultaneous or sequential hazards. By conceptualising risks within a hypergraph framework, our model overcomes these limitations, enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on infrastructure. We apply this model to the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal as a case study, demonstrating its ability to simulate the primary and secondary effects of the earthquake on buildings and roads across the whole earthquake-affected area. The model predicts the overall pattern of earthquake-induced building damage and landslide impacts, albeit with a tendency towards over-prediction. Our findings underscore the potential of the hypergraph approach for multi-hazard risk assessment, offering advances in rapid computation and scenario exploration for cascading geo-hazards. This approach could provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and humanitarian contingency planning, where the anticipation of large-scale trends is often more important than the prediction of detailed impacts.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2025 The Authors. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > School of Geography and Planning |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 03 Feb 2025 12:09 |
Last Modified: | 03 Feb 2025 12:09 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Copernicus GmbH |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:222668 |