Dissenting from the Inevitable? Understanding Omani Approaches to Israel and the Abraham Accords

In the months following the signature of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 there was considerable speculation about which countries would be next to join, Oman was a frequent subject of this speculation. This article explores why this was never likely. It does so through a theoretically informed, empirical examination of the patterns and practices of Omani foreign policy. Focusing especially on its engagements with Israel, alongside consideration of the domestic and regional pressures which shape Muscat’s approaches to Israel it draws on press releases, speeches, semi-structured interviews and theoretical analysis. The article thus paints a more nuanced and holistic picture of the Omani stance on: (a) joining the Accords, (b) the Accords themselves as a key regional development, and (c) its continuing relations with Israel, especially in the context of developments over Gaza. Ultimately, for Oman, the costs of recognising Israel, and being seen to join the Accords would significantly outweigh any benefits, jeopardising its carefully built status as an ‘interlocutor state’ and its core foreign policy principles.