Sianko, I., Ozdemir, Z. orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-8047, Hajirasouliha, I. et al. (1 more author) (2025) A probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis: case studies from the Marmara region. Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, 43 (2). 103. ISSN 0960-3182
Abstract
Earthquake induced soil liquefaction poses a significant threat to buildings and infrastructure, as evidenced by numerous catastrophic seismic events. Existing approaches of regional liquefaction hazard assessment predominantly rely on deterministic analysis methods. This paper presents a novel Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis (PLHA) framework based on Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations to mitigate future seismic risks associated with liquefaction. The proposed procedure requires only publicly available data, offering accessibility and applicability in resource-constrained settings. A key feature of the procedure is its ability to deal with uncertainties in earthquake and soil parameters using distribution functions. Liquefaction potential is assessed through parameters such as Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) and Liquefaction Severity (LS). The procedure is implemented in MATLAB as part of a broader probabilistic risk assessment framework for developing countries. The developed procedure is applied to the high risk city of Adapazari, Türkiye; an area lacking prior PLHA studies. Results are validated against observed liquefaction data from a simulated scenario event of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake. Probabilistic liquefaction hazard maps are generated for the study area and the entire Marmara region in terms of LPI and LS. A novel aspect of this work is the integration of a time-dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) model into the PLHA framework. Results are compared with those predicted using the Poisson model for the Marmara region. Findings demonstrate that the developed PLHA procedure offers a robust and flexible tool for predicting seismic liquefaction hazards, providing valuable insights for loss estimation and risk mitigation planning.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Liquefaction; Probabilistic liquefaction hazard analyses; Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations; Marmara region |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Civil and Structural Engineering (Sheffield) The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 17 Jan 2025 17:05 |
Last Modified: | 17 Jan 2025 17:05 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s10706-024-03042-6 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:221730 |