Home urine dipstick screening for bladder and kidney cancer in high-risk populations in England: a microsimulation study of long-term impact and cost-effectiveness

Background

Testing high-risk populations for non-visible haematuria may enable earlier detection of bladder cancer, potentially decreasing mortality. This research aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of urine dipstick screening for bladder cancer in high-risk populations in England.

Methods

A microsimulation model developed in R software was calibrated to national incidence data by age, sex and stage, and validated against mortality data. Individual risk factors included age, sex, smoking status and factory employment. We evaluated three one-time screening scenarios: (1) current and former smokers of different ages within the 55–70 years range, (2) a mixed-age cohort of smokers aged 55–80 years and (3) individuals aged 65–79 years from high-risk regions. Probabilistic and scenario analyses evaluated uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and compared with the standard £20,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold using payer’s perspective and 2022 year of evaluation with 3.5% discounting for both costs and effects.

Results

Screening all current and former smokers (scenario 1) and both mixed-age cohorts (scenarios 2 and 3) was not cost-effective at the threshold of £20,000/QALY. Screening at age 58 years had a 33% probability of being cost-effective at £20,000/QALY threshold and a 64% probability at £30,000/QALY threshold. Screening current and former smoking men aged 58 and 60 years was cost-effective, with ICERs of £18,181 and £18,425 per QALY, respectively. Scenario results demonstrated the high impact of assumptions on lead time, diagnostic pathway, and screening efficacy on predictions.

Conclusions

Screening smoking men aged 58 or 60 years for bladder cancer using urine dipstick tests may be cost-effective.