Gibbons, C.L. and Latimer, N.R. orcid.org/0000-0001-5304-5585 (2024) Prevalence of immature survival data for anti-cancer drugs presented to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence between 2018-2022. Value in Health. ISSN 1098-3015
Abstract
Objectives
Between 2015 and 2017, 41% of NICE cancer single technology appraisal (STA) decisions relied upon immature survival data. This occurs when clinical trials that form the evidence base in support of new or existing technologies suffer from limited follow-up. During this period, NICE did not negatively recommend any cancer technologies that used immature data. This suggests a potential incentive to submit to NICE with immature data to avoid rejection. Using immature survival data in cost-effectiveness evaluations has resulted in importantly different conclusions, compared to cost-effectiveness re-estimations using matured data. We assessed the reliance on immature survival data in NICE decision-making of cancer treatments, appraised after 2017.
Methods
A structured literature review of NICE cancer STAs published between 2018 and 2022 was conducted. The relationship between data maturity and NICE recommendations was assessed, and the extent to which past decisions were later reviewed was explored.
Results
56% (n=57) of NICE’s cancer recommendations relied upon immature survival data. 54% (n=31) of these received a positive recommendation, 39% (n=22) were placed into the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) and 7% (n=4) received a negative recommendation. STAs with mature data received a similar proportion of negative recommendations. Only one non-CDF recommendation based on immature data was reappraised using updated survival data.
Conclusion
The majority of NICE cancer technology decisions are based on immature survival data and receive positive recommendations. Non-CDF decisions are unlikely to be reappraised. Consequently, many technologies could receive an inappropriate recommendation based on immature data and not be subsequently rectified.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2024 The Authors. Except as otherwise noted, this author-accepted version of a journal article published in Value in Health is made available via the University of Sheffield Research Publications and Copyright Policy under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
Keywords: | NICE; decision-making; health technology assessment; immature survival data; oncology |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Medicine and Population Health |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Yorkshire Cancer Research S406NL |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 10 Jan 2025 14:29 |
Last Modified: | 10 Jan 2025 14:29 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier BV |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.jval.2024.11.013 |
Related URLs: | |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:221638 |
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Filename: Prevalence of Immature Survival Data manuscript - main document revised 2 (clean).pdf
Licence: CC-BY 4.0