Mapping and analyzing ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots for sustainable spatial planning in the greater Asmara area, Eritrea

Rapid urbanization in African metropolises like the Greater Asmara Area, Eritrea, poses numerous environmental challenges, including soil sealing, loss of vegetation cover, threats to protected natural areas, and climate change, among others. Mapping and assessing ecosystem services, particularly analyzing their spatial and temporal distribution is crucial for sustainable spatial planning. This study aims at mapping and analyzing ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots dynamics in the Greater Asmara Area to identify recent trends and opportunities for enhancing ecosystem services supply. Utilizing remote sensing images, we produced land cover maps for 2009 and 2020 and mapped six ecosystem services through a lookup table approach. The study includes provisioning, regulating and maintenance, and cultural ecosystem services. We analyzed their spatio-temporal variations, identifying ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots and their changes over time. Results show that overall ecosystem services potential in the Greater Asmara Area remains low but stable, with some improvements. By 2020, areas with no ecosystem services potential decreased in southern regions like Gala Nefhi and Berik, and new hotspots and coldspots emerged in central Gala Nefhi. This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility and key challenges of the ecosystem services hotspots and coldspots approach for sustainable spatial planning in rapidly urbanizing African metropolitan regions. Despite limitations, the study offers valuable insights into ecosystem services potentials, and related hotspots and coldspots dynamics, raising awareness and paving the way for further research and application.