Tree lifespans in a warming world: unravelling the universal trade-off between growth and lifespan in temperate forests

Tree growth and lifespan are key determinants of forest dynamics, and ultimately control carbon stocks. Warming and increasing CO₂ have been observed to increase growth but such increases may not result in large net biomass gains due to trade-offs between growth and lifespan. A deeper understanding of the nature of the trade-off and its potential spatial variation is crucial to improve predictions of the future carbon sink. This study aims to identify key drivers of growth and lifespan, assess the universality of tree growth-lifespan trade-offs, explore the possible latitudinal patterns of trade-off strengths and their determinants, and project growth and lifespan under future climate scenarios. We analyzed 21,193 trees of 69 species (48 included in further analysis) at 445 sites (417 included in further analysis) in temperate forests in northeastern China to estimate early growth rate and tree lifespan. We find that temperature and human pressure enhance tree growth and reduce lifespan, while altitude increases lifespan. We further find evidence for growth-lifespan trade-offs at all studied levels, that is, among trees, among species and communities, and within species and communities. Trade-offs are stronger at colder, higher latitudes compared to warmer sites, because of larger variation in tree growth and climate, larger range sizes for individual species, and lower species' diversity for communities at high latitudes. We predict future increases in growth and reductions in tree lifespan in response to climate change for the 2050s. Taking growth lifespan trade-offs into account resulted in even larger predictions of decreases in tree lifespan of up to 8%. In conclusion, growth-lifespan trade-offs are universal, but the strengths may vary by environment and between different forests. Its effects are important to include in predictions of forest responses to global change and need to be considered more widely.