Johansson, H., Pandey, D., Lorentzon, M. et al. (3 more authors) (2024) A surrogate FRAX model for Nepal. Archives of Osteoporosis, 19. 115. ISSN 1594-0667
Abstract
Summary A surrogate FRAX® model for Nepal has been constructed using age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age- and sex-specific mortality rates from Nepal.
Introduction FRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fractures. In such circumstances, the development of a surrogate FRAX model is recommended based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.
Objective This report describes the development and characteristics of a surrogate FRAX model for Nepal.
Methods The FRAX model used the ethnic-specific incidence of hip fracture in the Indian community of Singapore, combined with the death risk for Nepal in 2015–2019. The number of hip fractures in 2015 and 2050 was estimated based on the United Nations’ predicted changes in population demography.
Results The surrogate model gave similar hip fracture probabilities to estimates from Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan but lower 10-year fracture probabilities for men and women at older ages compared to the model for Singapore, reflecting a higher mortality risk in Nepal compared with Singapore. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the Nepalese and the Singapore models (r > 0.995) so that the use of the Nepalese model had little impact on the rank order of risk, i.e. a person at the xth percentile of risk with one model will be at the xth percentile of risk with the other. It was estimated that 6897 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals aged 50 years and older in Nepal, with a predicted 3-fold increase expected by 2050, when 23,409 hip fractures are expected nationally.
Conclusion The surrogate FRAX model for Nepal provides an opportunity to determine fracture probability within the Nepalese population and help guide decisions about treatment.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2024 The Authors. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Nepal; Hip fracture; FRAX; Surrogate model |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Medicine and Population Health |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 19 Nov 2024 16:47 |
Last Modified: | 19 Nov 2024 16:47 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11657-024-01474-4 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11657-024-01474-4 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:219784 |