Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict relapse in adults with remitted depression in primary care: secondary analysis of pooled individual participant data from multiple studies

Background Relapse of depression is common and contributes to the overall associated morbidity and burden. We lack evidence-based tools to estimate an individual’s risk of relapse after treatment in primary care, which may help us more effectively target relapse prevention.

Objective The objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict risk of relapse of depression in primary care.

Methods Multilevel logistic regression models were developed, using individual participant data from seven primary care-based studies (n=1244), to predict relapse of depression. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping, and generalisability was explored using internal–external cross-validation.

Findings Residual depressive symptoms (OR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.20), p<0.001) and baseline depression severity (OR: 1.07 (1.04 to 1.11), p<0.001) were associated with relapse. The validated model had low discrimination (C-statistic 0.60 (0.55–0.65)) and miscalibration concerns (calibration slope 0.81 (0.31–1.31)). On secondary analysis, being in a relationship was associated with reduced risk of relapse (OR: 0.43 (0.28–0.67), p<0.001); this remained statistically significant after correction for multiple significance testing.

Conclusions We could not predict risk of depression relapse with sufficient accuracy in primary care data, using routinely recorded measures. Relationship status warrants further research to explore its role as a prognostic factor for relapse.

Clinical implications Until we can accurately stratify patients according to risk of relapse, a universal approach to relapse prevention may be most beneficial, either during acute-phase treatment or post remission. Where possible, this could be guided by the presence or absence of known prognostic factors (eg, residual depressive symptoms) and targeted towards these.