Horizon scanning is used to help identify potentially significant societal, economic or technological shifts which if they occurred would have major impacts on society. AQEG generally approaches the science and technology of air pollution either through retrospective analyses – what has happened to air quality and why, - or via future projections. These future projections are generally short to medium term and bounded by well-established science, but it is alsoAQEG’s role to identify evidence gaps that include uncertainties. It is valuable to periodically look beyond established evidence, towards emerging science to identify potential perturbations and assess risks that might plausibly lead to unexpected and large future air quality changes, for example those arising from climatological, technological and behavioural shifts. Since atmospheric chemistry is often non-linear in the generation of secondary pollutants and has dependencies on weather and climate, there exists the potential also for chemical and physical tipping points that may amplify changes in air quality (either positively or negatively). Often unanticipated air quality outcomes occur not because of a single large event but instead through the accumulation or interaction of multiple smaller changes.Air quality outcomes are closely linked to policy and regulation but also to hard-to-predict public choices around transport, diet and lifestyle. A possible impact from these types of future changes can be difficult to capture and often requires in-depth knowledge of the science field.Also noteworthy is that the chemical nature of air pollution is not fixed; it changes over time as sources change reflecting wider regulatory, technological and social trends. New perspectives can also arise from new scientific knowledge. The history of air pollution science is littered with events and discoveries that revealed new risks and required rapid evolution of regulation and policy. Examples include the great smog of London in 1952 and the Clean Air Act of 1956, the discovery of the pervasive harm from lead additives in fuel and the measurement campaigns of the 1970s that revealed that photochemical ozone was not just confined to warmer climates but affected air quality in western Europe too. On the health front research from the 1990’s revealed that the health-harm from long-term exposure was far greater than that from short-term smog events laying the foundations for modern air quality regulation. AtAQEG meeting 66 a round-table discussion on the long-term future for air quality in the UK was undertaken. Members each highlighted up to three areas of possibly under- recognised significance in a horizon scanning context. The focus of the discussion was on events, changes and processes that required specialist knowledge of the air pollution science field to discern rather than more generalised high impact and extreme events on air quality such as war and terrorism, chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear releases (CBRN) or major chemical accidents. These latter types of events are already identified in Defra Futures Team horizon scanning activities and more broadly are well-captured in the Cabinet Office National Risk Register. A wide range of issues related to atmospheric emissions, novel materials, human behaviours, monitoring, regulation, atmospheric processes and social factors were discussed. Anumber of consensus themes emerged which are summarised in this short note. 2 It is important to stress that the workshop did not explore the probability or likelihood of individual and/or cumulative outcomes occurring, only that the events or changes to processes were plausible based on current scientific understanding and that if actualised they could lead to large and currently unanticipated impacts on air quality. The existence of a scenario should not be interpreted as meaning it is likely to occur, and the existence of related risk is not a criticism of current technologies, regulations or policies in the relevant sectors. The intended audience for this paper is horizon scanning professionals within Defra, Government Office for Science and related Departments that have responsibilities for sectoral atmospheric emissions. The paper is made accessible publicly since it may be of wider interest and in line with AQEG principles of open and transparent communication of its work. Seven key horizon scan air pollution risks were (in no particular order): • Systemic underperformance of technical and regulatory air pollution abatement. • Multi-causal increases in atmospheric ammonia over the UK. • Increasing concentrations and health impacts of ultrafine particles (UFP). • Emergence of novel airborne materials and health effects • Climate-driven drought effects and increasing PM pollution. • Enhanced emissions of biological particles and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) • Loss of confidence in air pollution science and increasing uncertainty in forecasting
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)