The Effect of Rail Journey Time Improvements: Some Results and Lessons of British Experience Relevant to High Speed Rail Forecasting.

This paper discusses the British experience of forecasting the effect of journey time reductions on the demand for rail travel. Its purpose is to discuss results and methodologies from the British context which may be appropriate to other contexts, and particularly to forecasting the demand for new high speed rail services. Two areas of research are selected for discussion: aggregate econometric models of rail demand and Stated Preference choice models. It is concluded that the results derived from one context may not be as transferable as one might wish to some other situation and that it is important to obtain a better understanding of the factors influencing journey time elasticities. Both of the demand analysis methodologies discussed could contribute to an improved understanding whilst an attraction of the Stated Preference approach is that it lessens the need to transfer results from one context to another.