Gamelon, M. orcid.org/0000-0002-9433-2369, Jenouvrier, S. orcid.org/0000-0003-3324-2383, Lindner, M. orcid.org/0000-0003-2931-265X et al. (2 more authors) (2023) Detecting climate signals cascading through levels of biological organization. Nature Climate Change, 13 (9). pp. 985-989. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Threats to species under climate change can be understood as a time at which the signal of climate change in ecological processes emerges from the noise of ecosystem variability, defined as ‘time of emergence’ (ToE). Here we show that ToE for the great tit (Parus major) will occur earlier at the level of population size than trait (laying date) and vital rates (survival, recruitment) under the RCP 8.5 scenario, suggesting an amplified climate change signal at the population level. ToE thus varies across levels of biological organization that filter trends and variability in climate differently. This has implications for the detection of climate impacts on wild species, as a shift in population size may precede changes in traits and vital rates. Further work would need to identify the ecological level that may experience an earlier detection of the climate signal for species with contrasting life histories, climate trends and variability.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2023. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in nature climate change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Climate-change ecology; Ecological modelling; Population dynamics |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 24 Sep 2024 13:29 |
Last Modified: | 24 Sep 2024 13:29 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-023-01760-y |
Related URLs: | |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:217580 |