Targets for effective climate mitigation governance in the UK

Targets to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been in place since 2008 and are underpinned by the Climate Change Act (2008). The UK is currently committed to reduce GHG emissions to ‘net zero’ by 2050 and has several interim targets to meet on the way. These interim targets, called ‘carbon budgets’, delineate permissible GHG emissions over consecutive five-year periods. The UK also has an international commitment known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), again targeting GHG reductions of 68% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

Beyond the setting of these interim carbon budgets and establishing a 2050 net zero date, the Climate Change Act has also established statutory reporting on progress and proposals to achieve these targets. Further, it created the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC) to provide the UK Government with crucial evidence, suggest carbon budget levels, and scrutinise progress. However, whilst these features importantly define the high-level ambition of the net zero pathway, further sub targets, or mandatory reporting on these, are not prescribed. This is by design, to ensure that the ruling government can explore how they wish to deliver the target. While this is understandable, this approach can lead to ambiguity in terms of which sectors are contributing to reductions and by when.

With a general election in July 2024, we are giving thought as to whether a new administration needs to explicitly introduce some additional targets to support the UK’s high-level ambition of achieving net zero by 2050. At present, some soft targets derived from the Government’s Carbon Budget Delivery Plan are tracked, monitored, and scrutinised by the CCC, such as sectoral contributions to decarbonisation. However, we present evidence suggesting that explicitly setting these additional targets could overcome some key challenges that the UK faces in delivering transformative change to achieve both interim and longer-term targets, as well as provide a framework for clear and consistent monitoring and progress evaluation on crucial indicators necessary to achieve net zero. As a result, we aim to unpick the evidence for further climate targets that could be adopted in the next parliament. These targets, still sitting at the national level, provide more focus on mitigation actions needed if the UK is to achieve its current decarbonisation aims.

The purpose of this document is to present the evidence and raise debate on how we can ensure that the UK delivers its national and international climate goals. We welcome discussion, constructive insights, and further debate to ensure this important outcome. Targets beyond those we have suggested are also important, such as one directed at our consumption emissions, methane, and other GHGs, as well as adaptation targets that are crucial to ensure the UK’s resilience to climate impacts. Our proposal is that these targets would remove ambiguity from the transition by providing clarity over the direction of the transition and giving greater scope to evaluate the progress of the UK in this pivotal period for action to address climate change.