Ahmed, A., Nawaz, R., Woulds, C. orcid.org/0000-0002-3681-1468 et al. (1 more author) (2020) Influence of hydro-climatic factors on future coastal land susceptibility to erosion in Bangladesh: a geospatial modelling approach. Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis, 4. 6. ISSN 2509-8810
Abstract
This study envisaged the likely impacts of future hydro-climatic changes on the susceptibility of coastal land to erosion through the development of raster-based geographical information system (GIS) model called land susceptibility to coastal erosion (LSCE). The model was applied to the coastal area of Bangladesh to assess future erosion susceptibility under four greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories: A1B, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicate considerable changes in future scenarios of coastal land susceptibility to erosion in the area compared to current baseline conditions. The current area of 276.33 km2 (0.61%) high and very high susceptible lands would be substantially increased to 1019.13 km2 (2.25% of land), 799.16 km2 (1.77%), 1181.38 km2 (2.61%) and 4040.71 km2 (8.96%) by 2080 under A1B, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Spatially, the western and eastern coastal zones would have low to moderate susceptibility to erosion, whereas the central coastal zone would have moderate to high/very high susceptibility to erosion. Seasonally, the model predicted the high erosion susceptibility during the monsoon seasons and very low erosion susceptibility during the winter seasons in the future. The model outputs were enhanced by integrating experts’ judgements through fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach. The LSCE model might be indispensable for coastal researchers in generating future scenarios of physical susceptibility to erosion for highly dynamic coastal areas around the world.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Ⓒ The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Climate; Erosion; LSCE; Susceptibility |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) ?? Leeds.SD-LSAS ?? |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 09 Sep 2024 14:59 |
Last Modified: | 09 Sep 2024 14:59 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s41651-020-00050-x |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:216886 |