Romazini-Bezerra, G. and Maycock, A.C. orcid.org/0000-0002-6614-1127 (2024) Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation. Nature Communications, 15. 6590. ISSN 2041-1723
Abstract
Deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement climate target. If the world strengthens efforts toward near-term decarbonisation and undertakes major societal transformation, this will be met with requests from policymakers and the public for evidence that our actions are working and there are demonstrable effects on the climate system. Global surface temperature exhibits large internal variability on interannual to decadal timescales, meaning a reduction in the magnitude of surface warming would not be robustly attributable to climate mitigation for some time. In contrast, global stratospheric temperature trends have much higher signal-to-noise ratios and could offer an early indication of the effects of climate mitigation. Here we examine projected near-term global temperature trends at the surface and in the stratosphere using large ensemble climate models following three future emission scenarios. Under rapid, deep emission cuts following SSP1–1.9, modelled middle and upper stratospheric cooling trends show a detectable weakening within 5 years compared to a scenario approximately representing current climate commitments (SSP2–4.5). Therefore, stratospheric temperature trends could serve as an early indicator to policymakers and the public that climate mitigation is taking effect.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2024. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 820829 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 22 Jul 2024 11:20 |
Last Modified: | 12 Aug 2024 14:22 |
Status: | Published online |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41467-024-50648-8 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:214966 |