Liefgreen, A., Jenkins, S.C. orcid.org/0000-0001-8400-9691, Osman, S. et al. (11 more authors) (2024) Severity influences categorical likelihood communications: A case study with Southeast Asian weather forecasters. Scientific Reports, 14 (1). 14607. ISSN 2045-2322
Abstract
Risk assessments are common in multiple domains, from finance to medicine. They require evaluating an event's potential severity and likelihood. We investigate the possible dependence of likelihood and severity within the domain of impact-based weather forecasting (IBF), following predictions derived from considering asymmetric loss functions. In a collaboration between UK psychologists and partners from four meteorological organisations in Southeast Asia, we conducted two studies (N = 363) eliciting weather warnings from forecasters. Forecasters provided warnings denoting higher likelihoods for high severity impacts than low severity impacts, despite these impacts being described as having the same explicit numerical likelihood of occurrence. This 'Severity effect' is pervasive, and we find it can have a continued influence even for an updated forecast. It is additionally observed when translating warnings made on a risk matrix to numerical probabilities.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2024. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | Impact-based warnings, Risk perception, Risk communication, Severity efect, Natural hazards, Asymmetric loss functions |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Business (Leeds) > Analytics, Technology & Ops Department |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 08 Jul 2024 16:31 |
Last Modified: | 08 Jul 2024 16:31 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41598-024-64399-5 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:214489 |