Kopasker, D. orcid.org/0000-0002-2636-8431, Bronka, P. orcid.org/0000-0003-1068-3186, Thomson, R.M. orcid.org/0000-0002-3060-939X et al. (9 more authors) (2024) Evaluating the influence of taxation and social security policies on psychological distress: A microsimulation study of the UK during the COVID-19 economic crisis. Social Science & Medicine, 351. 116953. ISSN 0277-9536
Abstract
Economic determinants are important for population health, but actionable evidence of how policies can utilise these pathways remains scarce. This study employs a microsimulation framework to evaluate the effects of taxation and social security policies on population mental health. The UK economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic provides an informative context involving an economic shock accompanied by one of the strongest discretionary fiscal responses amongst OECD countries.
The analytical setup involves a dynamic, stochastic, discrete-time microsimulation model (SimPaths) projecting changes in psychological distress given predicted economic outcomes from a static tax-benefit microsimulation model (UKMOD) based on different policy scenarios. We contrast projections of psychological distress for the working-age population from 2017 to 2025 given the observed policy environment against a counterfactual scenario where pre-crisis policies remained in place. Levels of psychological distress and potential cases of common mental disorders (CMDs) were assessed with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12).
The UK policy response to the economic crisis is estimated to have prevented a substantial fall (over 12 percentage points, %pt) in the employment rate in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, projected psychological distress increased substantially (CMD prevalence increase >10%pt) under both the observed and the counterfactual policy scenarios. Through economic pathways, the policy response is estimated to have prevented a further 3.4%pt [95%UI 2.8%pt, 4.0%pt] increase in the prevalence of CMDs, approximately 1.2 million cases. Beyond 2021, as employment levels rapidly recovered, psychological distress returned to the pre-pandemic trend. Sustained preventative effects on poverty are estimated, with projected levels 2.1%pt [95%UI 1.8%pt, 2.5%pt] lower in 2025 than in the absence of the observed policy response.
The study shows that policies protecting employment during an economic crisis are effective in preventing short-term mental health losses and have lasting effects on poverty levels. This preventative effect has substantial public health benefits.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Economic determinants of health; Microsimulation; Social security; Mental health; Policy evaluation |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 18 Jun 2024 12:56 |
Last Modified: | 18 Jun 2024 12:56 |
Published Version: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.116953 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:213607 |