Farmers’ perceived effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and its relationship to preparedness and risk perception

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across the agri-food sector was significant and pervasive, challenging farmers' resilience through multiple disruptions to the supply chain. To support forward planning in face to future shocks, this research examines the perceived impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by farmers themselves, providing insights from the UK. Using a nation-wide online survey carried out during two distinct waves of the pandemic in 2021, the study reveals changing perceptions and the relationship between preparedness and perceived impacts. Results indicate that perceptions of both the severity of the COVID-19 impacts and preparedness for such impacts in the future, were scaled down as the pandemic evolved. Findings suggest that a farmer feeling more prepared in the present to withstand shocks is positively influenced by them perceiving the impact of COVID-19's in their business as severe. This effect is reinforced for farmers that felt more prepared to withstand COVID-19's impacts when the pandemic unfolded, as well as for those that perceive the impact of COVID-19 as long-term. Farmers in our sample appear to have adapted to the shocks to their businesses through supply-side interventions, focusing on having higher flexibility in delivery of products and diversifying their supply networks. Doing so requires them to absorb an increase in both fixed and variable costs, which can end-up been transferred to the consumer. Government support moving forward should focus on strengthening and, perhaps, re-imagining the whole supply industry and re-defining the role of farmers as more than food producers, but also as stewards of climate and food resilience.