The longitudinal associations between ambient air pollution exposure and dementia in the UK: results from the cognitive function and ageing study II and Wales

Background Air pollution has been recognised as a potential risk factor for dementia. Yet recent epidemiological research shows mixed evidence. The aim of this study is to investigate the longitudinal associations between ambient air pollution exposure and dementia in older people across five urban and rural areas in the UK.

Methods This study was based on two population-based cohort studies of 11329 people aged ≥ 65 in the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II (2008–2011) and Wales (2011–2013). An algorithmic diagnosis method was used to identify dementia cases. Annual concentrations of four air pollutants (NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5) were modelled for the year 2012 and linked via the participants’ postcodes. Multistate modelling was used to examine the effects of exposure to air pollutants on incident dementia incorporating death and adjusting for sociodemographic factors and area deprivation. A random-effect meta-analysis was carried out to summarise results from the current and nine existing cohort studies.

Results Higher exposure levels of NO2 (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.14), O3 (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.70, 1.15), PM10 (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.58), PM2.5 (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.71, 2.79) were not strongly associated with dementia in the two UK-based cohorts. Inconsistent directions and strengths of the associations were observed across the two cohorts, five areas, and nine existing studies.

Conclusions In contrast to the literature, this study did not find clear associations between air pollution and dementia. Future research needs to investigate how methodological and contextual factors can affect evidence in this field and clarity the influence of air pollution exposure on cognitive health over the lifecourse.