Smith, M.W. orcid.org/0000-0003-4361-9527, Willis, T. orcid.org/0000-0003-0103-1805, Mroz, E. orcid.org/0000-0002-5204-1811 et al. (4 more authors) (2024) Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology. Science, 384 (6696). pp. 697-703. ISSN 0036-8075
Abstract
Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This item is protected by copyright. This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on Vol 384, Issue 6696, 9 May 2024, DOI: 10.1126/science.adk8755. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 14 May 2024 10:18 |
Last Modified: | 15 Aug 2024 13:59 |
Published Version: | https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk875... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) |
Identification Number: | 10.1126/science.adk8755 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:212443 |