Investigating Zonal Asymmetries in Stratospheric Ozone Trends From Satellite Limb Observations and a Chemical Transport Model

This study investigates the origin of a zonal asymmetry in stratospheric ozone trends at northern high latitudes, identified in satellite limb observations over the past two decades. We use a merged data set consisting of ozone profiles retrieved at the University of Bremen from SCIAMACHY and OMPS-LP measurements to derive ozone trends. We also use TOMCAT chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, forced by ERA5 reanalyses, to investigate the factors that drive the asymmetry observed in the long-term changes. By studying seasonally and longitudinally resolved observation-based ozone trends, we find, especially during spring, a well-pronounced asymmetry at polar latitudes with values up to +6 % per decade over Greenland and −5 % per decade over western Russia. The control CTM simulation agrees well with these observed trends, whereas sensitivity simulations indicate that chemical mechanisms involved in the production and removal of ozone, or their changes, are unlikely to explain the observed behavior. The decomposition of TOMCAT ozone time series and ERA5 geopotential height into the first two wavenumber components shows a clear correlation between the two variables in the middle stratosphere and demonstrates a weakening and a shift in the wavenumber-1 planetary wave activity over the past two decades. Finally, the analysis of the polar vortex position and strength points to a decadal oscillation with a reversal pattern at the beginning of the century. The same is found in the ozone trend asymmetry. This further stresses the link between changes in the polar vortex position and the identified ozone trend pattern.